[영어신문] 경기 침체를 향한 한국 경제

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Korea is feared to slip into a recession as the fast-spreading COVID-19 outbreak becomes a global pandemic, in what economists say signals the clear end of a decade-long cyclical economic expansion that is set to pound Asia's fourth-largest economy.

The much-readed recession, defined by at least two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, is increasingly becoming a reality after Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki acknowledged the likelihood of such in the first quarter of 2020.

Economists say the timing of a recovery hinges on how fast the viral spread becomes contained, while no immediate upturn is expected in exports, corporate investment and consumption.

Of bigger concern is the deterioration of asset quality in the banking industry, brought on by mass defaults of low-credit rated firms under mounting pressure over liquidity shortages.

Korea suffered a recession in 2003, amid fallout from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused by the SARS coronavirus.

The economy at the time shrank 0.7 percent from quarter-on-uarter in the January to March period. The following April to June quarter saw a further 0.2 percent contraction.

Gloomier outlook

In its latest outlook, global credit ratings agency Fitch forecast that the Korean economy will contract 0.6 percent in the first quarter and 0.9 percent in the second.

 

IHS Markit, a London-based research firm, also expects Korea to suffer a recession with its GDP shrinking 0.9 percent in the first quarter and 0.7 percent in the second quarter.

A Bloomberg survey of 14 such agencies also reported an expected average 0.9 percent contraction in the first quarter of 2020. It added that the possibility of Korea entering a recession in the next 12 months was 33 percent, a notable jump from 18 percent in January.

The most pessimistic view came from Nomura Securities, which expects the Korean economy to contract 3.7 percent in the first quarter from the last quarter of 2019.

Seoul National University professor Kim So-young said shocks to the real economy will be amplified, which will lead to a tightening of financial conditions.

"Debt defaults by individuals will translate into a crisis in the financial sector, mostly because lenders will not be able to receive interest on their loans, a key factor that deteriorates their asset quality."

In a report Monday, S&P Global Ratings said the Korean economy alongside other countries in the Asia-Pacific region will contract in 2020.

"The average growth rate for Asia-Pacific economic growth in 2020 will be 2.7 percent," it said. "We now expect China's GDP growth rate to slow to 2.9 percent in 2020. Economies will contract in Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and a newly deflationary Japan."

This is an addition to its earlier report on March 18 when it said a recession was "guaranteed."

"People flows from the U.S. and Europe will be decimated for at least two quarters, heaping more pressure on the tourism industry," it said.

Similarly, Moody's Investors Service in said a March 20 report that a "sharp contraction of the global economy ― at least in the second quarter ― appears imminent."

"Uncertainty will remain for at least several months as to how long it will take to contain the spread of the virus and how businesses and households will cope with the resulting financial losses," it said.

Extra budget

The higher-than-expected uncertainty is strengthening calls to draft a second supplemental budget, as the first one amounting to 11.7 trillion won ($92.3 billion) will not be enough to fight the economic fallout from the new coronavirus.

Calls will intensify from the ruling party given its earlier attempt to increase the budget by 6 trillion won were dismissed by the National Assembly budget committee, March 17.

The move will be empowered further following remarks from President Moon Jae-in who has called for additional spending.

"Measures to fight against COVID-19 may require more than one budget plan. A second, and third plan may be needed down the road if the situation drags on longer than expected," Moon said March 16.

The idea is shared by Hong who said the plan will be included in discussions on ways to expand countermeasures against fallout from the virus.

"The issue will be discussed, including ways find money for the extra budget," Hong said, March 19.

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경제학자들이 말한 바에 따르면, COVID-19의 급속한 확산이 세계적인 유행병이 되면서 한국은 경기 침체에 빠질 우려가 있다. 

홍남기 재무 장관이 2020 년 1 사 분기에 그 가능성을 인정한 후 최소 2 분기 연속 경제 위축으로 정의된 많은 경기 침체가 현실화되고 있다. 

경제학자들은 회복시기는 바이러스 확산이 얼마나 빨리 수용되는지에 달려 있으며 수출, 기업 투자 및 소비에서 즉각적인 상승이 예상되지 않는다고 말했다. 

유동성 부족에 대한 압력이 가중되고 있는 신용 등급이 낮은 기업의 대량 채무 불이행으로 인해 금융 산업의 자산 품질 저하가 더 큰 문제입니다. 

한국은 2003 년 SARS 코로나 바이러스로 인한 심각한 급성 호흡기 증후군 (SARS)으로 인한 불황으로 경기 침체를 겪었다. 

당시 경제는 1 월부터 3 월까지 1/4 분기에서 0.7 % 감소했다. 다음 4 월 ~ 6 월 분기에는 0.2 % 더 수축했습니다.

우울한 전망 

세계 신용 평가 기관인 피치 (Fitch)는 최근 전망에 따르면 한국 경제는 1 사 분기 0.6 %, 2 사 분기 0.9 % 하락할 것으로 전망했다. 

런던 소재 리서치 회사 인 IHS Markit은 한국의 GDP가 1 분기 0.9 %, 2 분기 0.7 % 감소하면서 경기 침체를 겪을 것으로 예상하고 있다. 

14 개 기관에 대한 블룸버그 조사에서도 2020 년 1 분기 평균 0.9 % 의 수축이 예상되었다. 또한 12 개월 안에 한국이 경기 침체에 빠질 가능성은 33 %로 1 월 18 % 에서 눈에 띄게 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 

가장 비관적인 견해는 노무라 증권 (Nomura Securities)에서 비롯되었으며 2019 년 마지막 분기에서 한국 경제가 1 분기에 3.7 % 감소할 것으로 예상합니다.

서울 대학교 김소영 교수는 실물 경제에 대한 충격이 증폭될 것이며 이는 재정 상황의 강화로 이어질 것이라고 말했다. 

"개인의 채무 불이행은 금융 부문의 위기로 이어질 것입니다. 대부분 대출 기관은 대출에 대한 이자를 받을 수 없기 때문에 자산 품질이 악화됩니다." 

S & P Global Ratings는 월요일 보고서에서 아시아 태평양 지역의 다른 국가들과 함께 한국 경제가 2020 년에 계약을 체결할 것이라고 밝혔다. 

"2020 년 아시아 태평양 경제 성장의 평균 성장률은 2.7 %가 될 것"이라고 말했다. "2020 년에는 중국의 GDP 성장률이 2.9 %로 둔화될 것으로 예상됩니다. 경제는 홍콩, 싱가포르, 한국 및 새로운 디플레이션 일본에서 계약을 맺을 것입니다." 

이것은 불황이 "보장되었다"라고 말한 3 월 18 일의 초기 보고서에 추가된 것이다. 

"미국과 유럽의 사람들의 흐름은 관광 산업에 더 많은 압력을 가하면서 최소 2/4 동안 감소될 것"이라고 말했다. 

마찬가지로, Moody 's Investors Service는 3 월 20 일 보고서에 따르면 "최소 2 분기에 세계 경제의 급격한 수축이 임박한 것으로 보인다"라고 밝혔다. 

"바이러스의 확산을 억제하는 데 걸리는 시간과 기업 및 가정이 재정적 손실에 어떻게 대처할 것인지에 대해서는 적어도 몇 달 동안 불확실성이 남아있을 것"이라고 말했다.

추가 예산 

예상보다 높은 불확실성은 두 번째 추가 예산안을 작성하라는 요구를 강화하고 있다. 첫 번째 예산은 11.7 조원 (92 억 3 천만 달러)으로 새로운 코로나 바이러스로 인한 경제적 하락에 맞서지 못할 것이기 때문이다. 

3 월 17 일 국회 예산위원회가 예산을 6 조 원 늘려 가기 시작한 것을 감안할 때 여당으로부터 전화가 강화될 것이다. 

이 조치는 추가 지출을 요구 한 문재인 대통령의 발언에 따라 더욱 강화될 것이다. 

문은 “COVID-19에 맞서 싸우기 위해서는 하나 이상의 예산 계획이 필요할 수 있다. 상황이 예상보다 길어질 경우 두 번째, 세 번째 계획이 필요하다”라고 말했다. 

이 아이디어는 이 계획이 바이러스 유출 방지 대책을 확대하는 방법에 대한 논의에 포함될 것이라고 Hong은 공유했다. 

Hong은 3 월 19 일에 "추가 예산으로 돈을 찾는 방법을 포함하여이 문제에 대해 논의할 것입니다.